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Wales U19 W vs USA U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Wales U19 W
Wales U19 W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
USA U19 W
USA U19 W
E. Bello 76'
S. Strawn 41' (pen)
A. Puerta 13'
3/2/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wales U19 W6%
×Draw13%
USA U19 W81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wales U19 W
0.55
USA U19 W
2.63

USA U19 W creates 378% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Wales U19 W
0.20
USA U19 W
1.67

allows per match

Wales U19 W
3.60
USA U19 W
0.89

finishing

Wales U19 W+0.00on par
USA U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 W ↓

USA U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–215%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wales U19 W or draw
19%
Wales U19 W or USA U19 W
87%
Draw or USA U19 W
94%

Winning margin

Wales U19 W wins by 2+
1%
USA U19 W wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Wales U19 W 1+ goals
42%
Wales U19 W 2+ goals
11%
Wales U19 W 3+ goals
2%
USA U19 W 1+ goals
93%
USA U19 W 2+ goals
73%
USA U19 W 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 W (draw refunded)
7%
USA U19 W (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 W at home — creates 0.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

USA U19 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 W attack 0.20 + USA U19 W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.55

USA U19 W attack 1.67 + Wales U19 W defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Wales U19 W scores more
6%
level
13%
USA U19 W scores more
81%

USA U19 W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "USA U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Puerta
41'
S. StrawnPenalty
76'
E. Bello

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wales U19 W vs USA U19 W

USA U19 W beat Wales U19 W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on March 2, 2026.

Goals: A. Puerta (13'), S. Strawn (41' pen), E. Bello (76').