Wales U19 W 0–4 Poland U19 W: Result & Stats

Wales U19 W

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Poland U19 W

J. Langosz 73'

K. Wyrwas 63'

A. Bogucka 40'

W. Arasniewicz 25'

2/23/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wales U19 W1%

×Draw10%

Poland U19 W89%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wales U19 WExpected goals in this matchPoland U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.10

2.40

Wales U19 W

0.10

Poland U19 W

2.40

Poland U19 W creates 2300% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.20

creates per match

1.20

3.60

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Wales U19 W

0.20

Poland U19 W

1.20

allows per match

Wales U19 W

3.60

Poland U19 W

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales U19 W+0.00on par

Poland U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No91
Yes9

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 W ↓

Poland U19 W →

0–08%

0–120%

0–224%

0–319%

0–411%

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–32%

1–41%

2–00%

2–10%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (24%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Wales U19 W or draw

11%

Wales U19 W or Poland U19 W

90%

Draw or Poland U19 W

99%

Winning margin

Wales U19 W wins by 2+

Poland U19 W wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

Wales U19 W 1+ goals

10%

Wales U19 W 2+ goals

Wales U19 W 3+ goals

Poland U19 W 1+ goals

91%

Poland U19 W 2+ goals

69%

Poland U19 W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 W (draw refunded)

Poland U19 W (draw refunded)

99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 W at home — creates 0.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Poland U19 W away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 W attack 0.20 + Poland U19 W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.10

Poland U19 W attack 1.20 + Wales U19 W defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 89%?"

Wales U19 W scores more

level

10%

Poland U19 W scores more

89%

Poland U19 W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Poland U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

40'

63'

73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff