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Wales U19 vs Switzerland U19 — Friendlies 2018

Wales U19
Wales U19
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Switzerland U19
Switzerland U19
M. Barton 83' (pen)
J. Salmon 11'
J. Atangana 90', 80'
I. Parra 53'
A. Vasovic 45', 36'
10/8/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wales U1921%
×Draw17%
Switzerland U1962%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wales U19
1.79
Switzerland U19
3.08

Switzerland U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Wales U19
1.33
Switzerland U19
3.00

allows per match

Wales U19
3.17
Switzerland U19
2.25

finishing

Wales U19+0.00on par
Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Wales U19 or draw
38%
Wales U19 or Switzerland U19
83%
Draw or Switzerland U19
79%

Winning margin

Wales U19 wins by 2+
10%
Switzerland U19 wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Wales U19 1+ goals
83%
Wales U19 2+ goals
53%
Wales U19 3+ goals
26%
Switzerland U19 1+ goals
95%
Switzerland U19 2+ goals
81%
Switzerland U19 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 (draw refunded)
25%
Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 attack 1.33 + Switzerland U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Switzerland U19 attack 3.00 + Wales U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wales U19 scores more
21%
level
17%
Switzerland U19 scores more
62%

Switzerland U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Switzerland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
J. Salmon
36'
A. Vasovic
45'
A. Vasovic
53'
I. Parra
80'
J. Atangana
83'
M. BartonPenalty
90'
J. Atangana
Wales
Switzerland
C. Gunter
Manager: C. Gunter
M. Rizzo
Manager: M. Rizzo

Friendlies: Wales U19 2–5 Switzerland U19

Switzerland U19 beat Wales U19 5-2 in Friendlies on October 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Salmon (11'), A. Vasovic (36', 45'), I. Parra (53'), J. Atangana (80', 90'), M. Barton (83' pen).