Wales U19 1–2 Netherlands U19: Result & Stats

Wales U19

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Netherlands U19

C. Norton 90'

S. van den Berg 90+2'

J. Familio-Castillo 26'

3/20/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 3Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wales U1910%

×Draw16%

Netherlands U1974%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wales U19Expected goals in this matchNetherlands U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

2.42

Wales U19

0.75

Netherlands U19

2.42

Netherlands U19 creates 223% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.83

3.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Wales U19

1.00

Netherlands U19

1.83

allows per match

Wales U19

3.00

Netherlands U19

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales U19+0.00on par

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 ↓

Netherlands U19 →

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–310%

0–46%

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wales U19 or draw

26%

Wales U19 or Netherlands U19

84%

Draw or Netherlands U19

90%

Winning margin

Wales U19 wins by 2+

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Wales U19 1+ goals

53%

Wales U19 2+ goals

17%

Wales U19 3+ goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

91%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

69%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Netherlands U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 attack 1.00 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Netherlands U19 attack 1.83 + Wales U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Wales U19 scores more

10%

level

16%

Netherlands U19 scores more

74%

Netherlands U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Familio-Castillo

67'

C. Norton← D. Griffiths

71'

W. Burger← M. Ihattaren

90'

C. Norton

90+2'

S. van den Berg

Wales

Netherlands

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: P. Bodin

67'▲C. Norton←▼D. Griffiths

Wales U19 substitutes

15Norton12Przybek4Bowen13Foulston

Manager: M. Stekelenburg

71'▲W. Burger←▼M. Ihattaren

Netherlands U19 substitutes

18Burger20Ekkelenkamp16Schendelaar14Koopmeiners

Match Recap: Wales U19 vs Netherlands U19

Netherlands U19 beat Wales U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 20, 2019.

Goals: J. Familio-Castillo (26'), C. Norton (90'), S. van den Berg (90+2').

The match was played at Sportpark de Boshoek in Hardenberg.

Wales U19 vs Netherlands U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wales U19 vs Netherlands U19