Wales U19 3–2 Japan U19: Result & Stats

Wales U19

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Japan U19

C. Allen 90'

W. Grainger 11'

J. Gentles 8'

S. Sakai 32'

T. Yamamoto 16'

11/12/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wales U1927%

×Draw19%

Japan U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wales U19Expected goals in this matchJapan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.58

Wales U19

1.79

Japan U19

2.58

Japan U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

2.00

3.17

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Wales U19

1.33

Japan U19

2.00

allows per match

Wales U19

3.17

Japan U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales U19+0.00on par

Japan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 ↓

Japan U19 →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Wales U19 or draw

46%

Wales U19 or Japan U19

81%

Draw or Japan U19

73%

Winning margin

Wales U19 wins by 2+

13%

Japan U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Wales U19 1+ goals

83%

Wales U19 2+ goals

53%

Wales U19 3+ goals

26%

Japan U19 1+ goals

92%

Japan U19 2+ goals

72%

Japan U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Japan U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Japan U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 attack 1.33 + Japan U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Japan U19 attack 2.00 + Wales U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wales U19 scores more

27%

level

19%

Japan U19 scores more

54%

Japan U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Japan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

16'

32'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff