Wales U19 0–4 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Wales U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Germany U19

J. Fields 90+3'

O. Stange 58'

M. Culbreath 30'

F. Onyeka 21'

7/1/2026

UEFA U19 Championship · Group StageRacecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wales U1918%

×Draw19%

Germany U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wales U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.29

Wales U19

1.15

Germany U19

2.29

Germany U19 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.57

3.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Wales U19

1.00

Germany U19

1.57

allows per match

Wales U19

3.00

Germany U19

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Wales U19 or draw

37%

Wales U19 or Germany U19

81%

Draw or Germany U19

82%

Winning margin

Wales U19 wins by 2+

7%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Wales U19 1+ goals

68%

Wales U19 2+ goals

32%

Wales U19 3+ goals

11%

Germany U19 1+ goals

90%

Germany U19 2+ goals

66%

Germany U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 attack 1.00 + Germany U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Germany U19 attack 1.57 + Wales U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Wales U19 scores more

18%

level

19%

Germany U19 scores more

63%

Germany U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. Lienou

21'

F. Onyeka↳ M. Culbreath

30'

M. Culbreath↳ M. Reimers

42'

J. Thomas

46'

H. Kasvosve← A. Brett

46'

B. Nink

58'

O. Stange↳ B. Mamuzah Lum

61'

C. Stevens

62'

C. Allen

71'

J. Lacey← C. Stevens

71'

S. Pita← E. Myles

72'

J. Fields← O. Stange

76'

L. Gardner← B. Clarke

76'

R. Tankiewicz← C. Allen

80'

J. Lacey

80'

M. Catovic

84'

K. Koscierski← R. Pinto Pedrosa

85'

A. Licina← M. Culbreath

85'

L. Engelns← B. Mamuzah Lum

89'

T. Etcibasi← M. Reimers

90'

F. OnyekaMissed penalty

90+3'

J. Fields↳ K. Koscierski

90+7'

S. Pita

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff