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Wales U19 vs Belgium U19 — Friendlies 2018

Wales U19
Wales U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Belgium U19
Belgium U19
H. Kasvosve 74'
L. Bentt 62'
M. Debondt 35'
I. Struyf 14'
9/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wales U1927%
×Draw19%
Belgium U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wales U19
1.83
Belgium U19
2.58

Belgium U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wales U19
1.33
Belgium U19
2.00

allows per match

Wales U19
3.17
Belgium U19
2.33

finishing

Wales U19+0.00on par
Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Wales U19 or draw
46%
Wales U19 or Belgium U19
81%
Draw or Belgium U19
73%

Winning margin

Wales U19 wins by 2+
13%
Belgium U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Wales U19 1+ goals
84%
Wales U19 2+ goals
54%
Wales U19 3+ goals
28%
Belgium U19 1+ goals
92%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
72%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 (draw refunded)
34%
Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 attack 1.33 + Belgium U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Belgium U19 attack 2.00 + Wales U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wales U19 scores more
27%
level
19%
Belgium U19 scores more
54%

Belgium U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
I. Struyf
35'
M. Debondt
62'
L. Bentt
74'
H. Kasvosve
Wales
Belgium
C. Gunter
Manager: C. Gunter
S. Vermant
Manager: S. Vermant

Match Recap: Wales U19 vs Belgium U19

Belgium U19 beat Wales U19 3-1 in Friendlies on September 9, 2025.

Goals: I. Struyf (14'), M. Debondt (35'), L. Bentt (62'), H. Kasvosve (74').