Wales U19 vs Austria U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Wales U1917%
Austria U1952%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Austria U19 creates 122% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under75
- Over25
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No71
- Yes29
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wales U19 ↓
Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wales U19 at home — creates 0.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches
Austria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wales U19 attack 0.17 + Austria U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.54
Austria U19 attack 1.40 + Wales U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Austria U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Netherlands U19
England U19
Italy U19
France U19
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Turkey U19Austria U19
Ukraine U19
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Spain U19
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Germany U19
Romania U19
Belgium U19
Serbia U19
Sweden U19
Norway U19
Portugal U19
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Greece U19
Hungary U19
Kazakhstan U19
Kosovo U19
Switzerland U19
Latvia U19
Poland U19
Slovakia U19
Lithuania U19
Iceland U19
Luxembourg U19
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Slovenia U19
Belarus U19
Israel U19
Andorra U19
Albania U19
Republic of Ireland U19
Armenia U19
Scotland U19
Montenegro U19
North Macedonia U19Wales U19
Bulgaria U19
Georgia U19
ABFF U19
Azerbaijan U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Estonia U19
Malta U19
Cyprus U19
Faroe Islands U19
San Marino U19
Gibraltar U19
Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Wales U19 host Austria U19 on Wednesday, 11 October 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
Wales U19 0 – 0 Austria U19
Wales U19 and Austria U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 11, 2023.
The match was played at Stadion Braća Velašević in Danilovgrad.