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Wales U17 vs Norway U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Wales U17
Wales U17
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Norway U17
Norway U17
11/5/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 1Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Wales U1737%
×Draw23%
Norway U1739%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wales U17
1.58
Norway U17
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Wales U17
1.42
Norway U17
1.75

allows per match

Wales U17
1.50
Norway U17
1.75

finishing

Wales U17+0.00on par
Norway U17+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U17 ↓

Norway U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wales U17 or draw
61%
Wales U17 or Norway U17
77%
Draw or Norway U17
63%

Winning margin

Wales U17 wins by 2+
18%
Norway U17 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wales U17 1+ goals
79%
Wales U17 2+ goals
47%
Wales U17 3+ goals
21%
Norway U17 1+ goals
80%
Norway U17 2+ goals
48%
Norway U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wales U17 (draw refunded)
49%
Norway U17 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales U17 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Norway U17 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales U17 attack 1.42 + Norway U17 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.58

Norway U17 attack 1.75 + Wales U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wales U17 scores more
37%
level
23%
Norway U17 scores more
39%

Norway U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Norway U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Wales U17 3–4 Norway U17

Norway U17 beat Wales U17 4-3 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.