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Wales U17 vs Andorra U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Wales U17
Wales U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Andorra U17
Andorra U17
4/10/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Wales U1768%
×Draw19%
Andorra U1713%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wales U17
2.14
Andorra U17
0.82

Wales U17 creates 161% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Wales U17
1.42
Andorra U17
0.14

allows per match

Wales U17
1.50
Andorra U17
2.86

finishing

Wales U17+0.00on par
Andorra U17+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U17 ↓

Andorra U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wales U17 or draw
87%
Wales U17 or Andorra U17
81%
Draw or Andorra U17
32%

Winning margin

Wales U17 wins by 2+
43%
Andorra U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wales U17 1+ goals
88%
Wales U17 2+ goals
63%
Wales U17 3+ goals
36%
Andorra U17 1+ goals
56%
Andorra U17 2+ goals
20%
Andorra U17 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wales U17 (draw refunded)
84%
Andorra U17 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales U17 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Andorra U17 away — creates 0.14, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales U17 attack 1.42 + Andorra U17 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.14

Andorra U17 attack 0.14 + Wales U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Wales U17 scores more
68%
level
19%
Andorra U17 scores more
13%

Wales U17 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Wales U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Wales U17 0–0 Andorra U17

Wales U17 and Andorra U17 drew 0-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on April 10, 2026.