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Waldgirmes vs Fernwald — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Waldgirmes
Waldgirmes
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fernwald
Fernwald
8/14/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 4Stadion in den Lahnauen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Waldgirmes37%
×Draw22%
Fernwald40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waldgirmes
1.72
Fernwald
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 91 away

creates per match

Waldgirmes
1.88
Fernwald
1.86

allows per match

Waldgirmes
1.73
Fernwald
1.56

finishing

Waldgirmes+0.00on par
Fernwald+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waldgirmes ↓

Fernwald →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Waldgirmes or draw
60%
Waldgirmes or Fernwald
78%
Draw or Fernwald
63%

Winning margin

Waldgirmes wins by 2+
19%
Fernwald wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Waldgirmes 1+ goals
82%
Waldgirmes 2+ goals
51%
Waldgirmes 3+ goals
25%
Fernwald 1+ goals
83%
Fernwald 2+ goals
53%
Fernwald 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Waldgirmes (draw refunded)
48%
Fernwald (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waldgirmes at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 92 matches

Fernwald away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.56 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waldgirmes attack 1.88 + Fernwald defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Fernwald attack 1.86 + Waldgirmes defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Waldgirmes scores more
37%
level
22%
Fernwald scores more
40%

Fernwald at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fernwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waldgirmes vs Fernwald

Waldgirmes beat Fernwald 3-2 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion in den Lahnauen in Lahnau.