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Wakiso Giants vs Kyetume — Premier League 2019

Wakiso Giants
Wakiso Giants
FT
2 – 2
Kyetume
Kyetume
Y. Mugume 38'
I. Kasule 31'
S. Saaka 15'
B. Buyala 11'
12/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Kabaka Kyabaggu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Wakiso Giants50%
×Draw25%
Kyetume25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wakiso Giants
1.62
Kyetume
1.06

Wakiso Giants creates 53% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 26 away

creates per match

Wakiso Giants
1.36
Kyetume
0.81

allows per match

Wakiso Giants
1.31
Kyetume
1.88

finishing

Wakiso Giants+0.00on par
Kyetume+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wakiso Giants ↓

Kyetume →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wakiso Giants or draw
75%
Wakiso Giants or Kyetume
75%
Draw or Kyetume
50%

Winning margin

Wakiso Giants wins by 2+
26%
Kyetume wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wakiso Giants 1+ goals
80%
Wakiso Giants 2+ goals
48%
Wakiso Giants 3+ goals
22%
Kyetume 1+ goals
65%
Kyetume 2+ goals
29%
Kyetume 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)
67%
Kyetume (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wakiso Giants at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Kyetume away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wakiso Giants attack 1.36 + Kyetume defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kyetume attack 0.81 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wakiso Giants scores more
50%
level
25%
Kyetume scores more
25%

Wakiso Giants at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wakiso Giants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
B. Buyala
15'
S. Saaka
22'
H. Wasswa
31'
I. Kasule
38'
Y. Mugume
46'
J. Ssemambo← J. Ssemambo
52'
J. Lule← J. Lule
64'
W. Gadaffi← W. Gadaffi
64'
D. Emukule← D. Emukule
64'
R. Ssenfuka← R. Ssenfuka
73'
E. Satulo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wakiso Giants vs Kyetume

Wakiso Giants and Kyetume drew 2-2 in Premier League on December 8, 2020.

Goals: B. Buyala (11'), S. Saaka (15'), I. Kasule (31'), Y. Mugume (38').

The match was played at Kabaka Kyabaggu Sports Stadium in Wakiso.