Wakiso Giants 4–1 Gaddafi: Result & Stats

Wakiso Giants

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Gaddafi

2/5/2022

Premier League · Round 16Kabaka Kyabaggu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Wakiso Giants51%

×Draw25%

Gaddafi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wakiso GiantsExpected goals in this matchGaddafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.99

Wakiso Giants

1.59

Gaddafi

0.99

Wakiso Giants creates 61% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 44 away

1.36

creates per match

0.66

1.31

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Wakiso Giants

1.36

Gaddafi

0.66

allows per match

Wakiso Giants

1.31

Gaddafi

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wakiso Giants+0.00on par

Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wakiso Giants ↓

Gaddafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wakiso Giants or draw

76%

Wakiso Giants or Gaddafi

75%

Draw or Gaddafi

49%

Winning margin

Wakiso Giants wins by 2+

27%

Gaddafi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wakiso Giants 1+ goals

80%

Wakiso Giants 2+ goals

47%

Wakiso Giants 3+ goals

21%

Gaddafi 1+ goals

63%

Gaddafi 2+ goals

26%

Gaddafi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)

68%

Gaddafi (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wakiso Giants at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wakiso Giants attack 1.36 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wakiso Giants scores more

51%

level

25%

Gaddafi scores more

24%

Wakiso Giants at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wakiso Giants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff