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Wakiso Giants vs Arua Hill — Premier League 2019

Wakiso Giants
Wakiso Giants
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Arua Hill
Arua Hill
12/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Kabaka Kyabaggu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wakiso Giants45%
×Draw27%
Arua Hill28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wakiso Giants
1.39
Arua Hill
1.03

Wakiso Giants creates 35% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 36 away

creates per match

Wakiso Giants
1.36
Arua Hill
0.75

allows per match

Wakiso Giants
1.31
Arua Hill
1.42

finishing

Wakiso Giants+0.00on par
Arua Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wakiso Giants ↓

Arua Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wakiso Giants or draw
72%
Wakiso Giants or Arua Hill
73%
Draw or Arua Hill
55%

Winning margin

Wakiso Giants wins by 2+
22%
Arua Hill wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wakiso Giants 1+ goals
75%
Wakiso Giants 2+ goals
40%
Wakiso Giants 3+ goals
16%
Arua Hill 1+ goals
64%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
28%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)
62%
Arua Hill (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wakiso Giants at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Arua Hill away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wakiso Giants attack 1.36 + Arua Hill defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Arua Hill attack 0.75 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wakiso Giants scores more
45%
level
27%
Arua Hill scores more
28%

Wakiso Giants at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wakiso Giants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wakiso Giants 1–2 Arua Hill

Arua Hill beat Wakiso Giants 2-1 in Premier League on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Kabaka Kyabaggu Sports Stadium in Wakiso.