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Arua Hill vs Wakiso Giants — Premier League 2019

Arua Hill
Arua Hill
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Wakiso Giants
Wakiso Giants
3/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Barifa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arua Hill50%
×Draw27%
Wakiso Giants23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arua Hill
1.43
Wakiso Giants
0.88

Arua Hill creates 63% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 84 away

creates per match

Arua Hill
1.51
Wakiso Giants
0.76

allows per match

Arua Hill
1.00
Wakiso Giants
1.35

finishing

Arua Hill+0.00on par
Wakiso Giants+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arua Hill ↓

Wakiso Giants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arua Hill or draw
77%
Arua Hill or Wakiso Giants
73%
Draw or Wakiso Giants
50%

Winning margin

Arua Hill wins by 2+
25%
Wakiso Giants wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arua Hill 1+ goals
76%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
42%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
17%
Wakiso Giants 1+ goals
59%
Wakiso Giants 2+ goals
22%
Wakiso Giants 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arua Hill (draw refunded)
68%
Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Wakiso Giants away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arua Hill attack 1.51 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Wakiso Giants attack 0.76 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arua Hill scores more
50%
level
27%
Wakiso Giants scores more
23%

Arua Hill at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Arua Hill 4–2 Wakiso Giants

Arua Hill beat Wakiso Giants 4-2 in Premier League on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Barifa Football Stadium in Arua.