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Waidhofen / Thaya vs USC Rohrbach — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
FT
3 – 1
USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
4/5/2024Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 20Birkenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Waidhofen / Thaya41%
×Draw26%
USC Rohrbach33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waidhofen / Thaya
1.44
USC Rohrbach
1.25

Waidhofen / Thaya creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 71 away

creates per match

Waidhofen / Thaya
0.93
USC Rohrbach
1.06

allows per match

Waidhofen / Thaya
1.44
USC Rohrbach
1.94

finishing

Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par
USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waidhofen / Thaya ↓

USC Rohrbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Waidhofen / Thaya or draw
67%
Waidhofen / Thaya or USC Rohrbach
74%
Draw or USC Rohrbach
59%

Winning margin

Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
20%
USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
76%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
42%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
18%
USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
71%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
36%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
56%
USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waidhofen / Thaya at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.44 · 54 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.93 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
41%
level
26%
USC Rohrbach scores more
33%

Waidhofen / Thaya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Waidhofen / Thaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Waidhofen / Thaya 3–1 USC Rohrbach

Waidhofen / Thaya beat USC Rohrbach 3-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Birkenstadion in Waidhofen/Thaya.