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WAFA vs True Democracy — Division One League 2025

WAFA
WAFA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
True Democracy
True Democracy
1/25/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

WAFA41%
×Draw30%
True Democracy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.17
True Democracy
0.93

WAFA creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.13
True Democracy
0.93

allows per match

WAFA
0.93
True Democracy
1.20

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
True Democracy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

True Democracy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
71%
WAFA or True Democracy
70%
Draw or True Democracy
59%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
18%
True Democracy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
69%
WAFA 2+ goals
33%
WAFA 3+ goals
11%
True Democracy 1+ goals
61%
True Democracy 2+ goals
24%
True Democracy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
59%
True Democracy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

True Democracy away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.13 + True Democracy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

True Democracy attack 0.93 + WAFA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

WAFA scores more
41%
level
30%
True Democracy scores more
29%

WAFA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: WAFA 1–0 True Democracy

WAFA beat True Democracy 1-0 in Division One League on January 25, 2026.