WAFA 5–0 Liberty Professionals: Result & Stats

WAFA

FT

5 – 0

Liberty Professionals

K. Yiadom 80', 53'

A. Boakye 75'

S. Agyepong 69'

M. Owusu 67'

1/31/2021

Premier League · Round 11West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

WAFA52%

×Draw27%

Liberty Professionals21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WAFAExpected goals in this matchLiberty Professionals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.81

WAFA

1.44

Liberty Professionals

0.81

WAFA creates 78% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 34 away

1.44

creates per match

0.79

0.83

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

WAFA

1.44

Liberty Professionals

0.79

allows per match

WAFA

0.83

Liberty Professionals

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par

Liberty Professionals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Liberty Professionals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

WAFA or draw

79%

WAFA or Liberty Professionals

73%

Draw or Liberty Professionals

48%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+

26%

Liberty Professionals wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals

76%

WAFA 2+ goals

42%

WAFA 3+ goals

18%

Liberty Professionals 1+ goals

56%

Liberty Professionals 2+ goals

19%

Liberty Professionals 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)

71%

Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Liberty Professionals away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Liberty Professionals attack 0.79 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

WAFA scores more

52%

level

27%

Liberty Professionals scores more

21%

WAFA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Ntim← A. Ntim

48'

I. Abukari

50'

S. Ampaw← S. Ampaw

53'

K. Yiadom

62'

G. Ansong← G. Ansong

67'

M. Owusu

69'

S. Agyepong

75'

A. Boakye

79'

P. Kwame

80'

K. Yiadom

81'

P. Kwame

81'

P. Kwame

88'

K. Boakye Yiadom← K. Boakye Yiadom

88'

H. J. Mola← H. J. Mola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff