Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

WAFA vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
4 – 3
King Faisal
King Faisal
D. Lomotey 60'
A. Boakye 57'
G. Agbevor 46'
K. Yiadom 17'
K. Peprah 77', 33'
W. Yakubu 67'
11/15/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA56%
×Draw25%
King Faisal18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.56
King Faisal
0.77

WAFA creates 103% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 59 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
King Faisal
0.71

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
King Faisal
1.68

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
82%
WAFA or King Faisal
75%
Draw or King Faisal
44%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
30%
King Faisal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
79%
WAFA 2+ goals
46%
WAFA 3+ goals
21%
King Faisal 1+ goals
54%
King Faisal 2+ goals
18%
King Faisal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
75%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + King Faisal defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

King Faisal attack 0.71 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

WAFA scores more
56%
level
25%
King Faisal scores more
18%

WAFA at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
K. Yiadom
33'
K. Peprah
46'
G. Agbevor
57'
A. Boakye
60'
D. Lomotey
67'
W. Yakubu
77'
K. Peprah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WAFA vs King Faisal

WAFA beat King Faisal 4-3 in Premier League on November 15, 2020.

Goals: K. Yiadom (17'), K. Peprah (33', 77'), G. Agbevor (46'), A. Boakye (57'), D. Lomotey (60'), W. Yakubu (67').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.