WAFA 1–0 Home Stars: Result & Stats

WAFA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Home Stars

3/22/2026

Division One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

WAFA40%

×Draw32%

Home Stars28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WAFAExpected goals in this matchHome Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.80

WAFA

1.03

Home Stars

0.80

WAFA creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.67

0.93

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

WAFA

1.13

Home Stars

0.67

allows per match

WAFA

0.93

Home Stars

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par

Home Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Home Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

WAFA or draw

72%

WAFA or Home Stars

68%

Draw or Home Stars

60%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+

16%

Home Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals

64%

WAFA 2+ goals

28%

WAFA 3+ goals

9%

Home Stars 1+ goals

55%

Home Stars 2+ goals

19%

Home Stars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)

59%

Home Stars (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Home Stars away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.13 + Home Stars defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Home Stars attack 0.67 + WAFA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

WAFA scores more

40%

level

32%

Home Stars scores more

28%

WAFA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff