WAFA 1–1 Hearts of Oak: Result & Stats

WAFA

FT

1 – 1

Hearts of Oak

11/5/2021

Premier League · Round 2West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA45%

×Draw31%

Hearts of Oak25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WAFAExpected goals in this matchHearts of Oak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.77

WAFA

1.15

Hearts of Oak

0.77

WAFA creates 49% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 109 away

1.44

creates per match

0.72

0.83

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

WAFA

1.44

Hearts of Oak

0.72

allows per match

WAFA

0.83

Hearts of Oak

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Hearts of Oak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

WAFA or draw

75%

WAFA or Hearts of Oak

69%

Draw or Hearts of Oak

55%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+

19%

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals

68%

WAFA 2+ goals

32%

WAFA 3+ goals

11%

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

54%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

18%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)

65%

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

WAFA scores more

45%

level

31%

Hearts of Oak scores more

25%

WAFA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff