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WAFA vs Golden Warriors — Division One League 2025

WAFA
WAFA
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Golden Warriors
Golden Warriors
3/1/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

WAFA41%
×Draw28%
Golden Warriors31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.28
Golden Warriors
1.06

WAFA creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.13
Golden Warriors
1.19

allows per match

WAFA
0.93
Golden Warriors
1.44

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Golden Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Golden Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
69%
WAFA or Golden Warriors
72%
Draw or Golden Warriors
59%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
19%
Golden Warriors wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
72%
WAFA 2+ goals
37%
WAFA 3+ goals
14%
Golden Warriors 1+ goals
65%
Golden Warriors 2+ goals
29%
Golden Warriors 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
57%
Golden Warriors (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Golden Warriors away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.13 + Golden Warriors defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Golden Warriors attack 1.19 + WAFA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

WAFA scores more
41%
level
28%
Golden Warriors scores more
31%

WAFA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: WAFA 3–2 Golden Warriors

WAFA beat Golden Warriors 3-2 in Division One League on March 1, 2026.