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WAFA vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
2 – 1
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
Unknown 89'
E. Asubonteng 52'
R. Addai 82'
5/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

WAFA52%
×Draw27%
Ebusua Dwarfs21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.47
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.84

WAFA creates 75% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 26 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.85

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.50

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
79%
WAFA or Ebusua Dwarfs
73%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
48%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
26%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
77%
WAFA 2+ goals
43%
WAFA 3+ goals
18%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
57%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
21%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
71%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.85 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

WAFA scores more
52%
level
27%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
21%

WAFA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
37'
S. Acquah← S. Acquah
52'
E. Asubonteng
77'
I. Basit← I. Basit
82'
R. Addai
89'
90+2'
R. Appah← R. Appah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WAFA 2 – 1 Ebusua Dwarfs

WAFA beat Ebusua Dwarfs 2-1 in Premier League on May 30, 2021.

Goals: E. Asubonteng (52'), R. Addai (82'), ? (89').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.