Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

WAFA vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dreams
Dreams
1/16/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA50%
×Draw28%
Dreams22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.35
Dreams
0.80

WAFA creates 69% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 110 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Dreams
1.27

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
78%
WAFA or Dreams
72%
Draw or Dreams
50%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
24%
Dreams wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
74%
WAFA 2+ goals
39%
WAFA 3+ goals
15%
Dreams 1+ goals
55%
Dreams 2+ goals
19%
Dreams 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
69%
Dreams (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dreams attack 0.77 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

WAFA scores more
50%
level
28%
Dreams scores more
22%

WAFA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: WAFA 1–1 Dreams

WAFA and Dreams drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.