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WAFA vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
F. Mbella 65'
4/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA43%
×Draw30%
Asante Kotoko27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.16
Asante Kotoko
0.84

WAFA creates 38% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 110 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Asante Kotoko
0.85

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
73%
WAFA or Asante Kotoko
70%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
57%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
18%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
69%
WAFA 2+ goals
32%
WAFA 3+ goals
11%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
57%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
21%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
62%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

Asante Kotoko attack 0.85 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

WAFA scores more
43%
level
30%
Asante Kotoko scores more
27%

WAFA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
S. Mudasiru
46'
S. Agyepong← S. Agyepong
55'
J. Torsutsey← J. Torsutsey
57'
M. Omgba
62'
K. Yiadom
63'
65'
F. Mbella
72'
M. Owusu← M. Owusu
72'
J. Tedeku← J. Tedeku
82'
F. Gama← E. Keyekeh
84'
E. Keyekeh
90+4'
S. Boateng← S. Boateng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: WAFA 0–1 Asante Kotoko

Asante Kotoko beat WAFA 1-0 in Premier League on April 30, 2022.

Goals: F. Mbella (65').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.