Wadi Degla 1–1 Smouha SC: Result & Stats

Wadi Degla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Smouha SC

F. Boli 50'

S. Fekri 58'

9/28/2025

Premier League · Round 9Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wadi Degla35%

×Draw29%

Smouha SC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wadi DeglaExpected goals in this matchSmouha SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.11

Wadi Degla

1.09

Smouha SC

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 124 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

1.20

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Wadi Degla

1.00

Smouha SC

1.02

allows per match

Wadi Degla

1.20

Smouha SC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wadi Degla+0.00on par

Smouha SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wadi Degla ↓

Smouha SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Wadi Degla or draw

64%

Wadi Degla or Smouha SC

71%

Draw or Smouha SC

65%

Winning margin

Wadi Degla wins by 2+

14%

Smouha SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wadi Degla 1+ goals

66%

Wadi Degla 2+ goals

30%

Wadi Degla 3+ goals

10%

Smouha SC 1+ goals

67%

Smouha SC 2+ goals

30%

Smouha SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)

49%

Smouha SC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wadi Degla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

Smouha SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wadi Degla attack 1.00 + Smouha SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Smouha SC attack 1.02 + Wadi Degla defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Wadi Degla scores more

35%

level

29%

Smouha SC scores more

36%

Smouha SC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Smouha SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Boli

Wadi Degla · M

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Samir Fekri

46'

A. Scholes← H. Mohamed

46'

M. Kaandorp← I. El Bahnasi

50'

F. Boli↳ M. Diasty

53'

Ahmed Mayhoub

58'

S. Fekri↳ S. Reda

65'

A. Yehia← K. El Ghandour

73'

73'

74'

74'

81'

86'

M. Abdelrahim← Y. Oya

87'

90+4'

90+4'

90+3'

90+4'

90+3'

Juhayna← P. Badji

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WadiSmouha

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots7

3Corners2

18Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target1

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box0

Passing

53%Possession47%

314Total Passes272

233Accurate Passes177

74%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls6

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1