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Wadi Degla vs Pyramids FC — League Cup 2021

Wadi Degla
Wadi Degla
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
1/10/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 6Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wadi Degla57%
×Draw23%
Pyramids FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wadi Degla
1.80
Pyramids FC
0.95

Wadi Degla creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Wadi Degla
1.60
Pyramids FC
0.89

allows per match

Wadi Degla
1.00
Pyramids FC
2.00

finishing

Wadi Degla+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wadi Degla ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wadi Degla or draw
80%
Wadi Degla or Pyramids FC
77%
Draw or Pyramids FC
43%

Winning margin

Wadi Degla wins by 2+
33%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wadi Degla 1+ goals
83%
Wadi Degla 2+ goals
54%
Wadi Degla 3+ goals
27%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
61%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
25%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)
74%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wadi Degla at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wadi Degla attack 1.60 + Pyramids FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pyramids FC attack 0.89 + Wadi Degla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wadi Degla scores more
57%
level
23%
Pyramids FC scores more
20%

Wadi Degla at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wadi Degla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wadi Degla vs Pyramids FC

Wadi Degla beat Pyramids FC 4-0 in League Cup on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.