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Wadi Degla vs Pyramids FC — Premier League 2018

Wadi Degla
Wadi Degla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
11/21/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wadi Degla25%
×Draw27%
Pyramids FC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wadi Degla
0.95
Pyramids FC
1.43

Pyramids FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 129 away

creates per match

Wadi Degla
0.96
Pyramids FC
1.61

allows per match

Wadi Degla
1.25
Pyramids FC
0.94

finishing

Wadi Degla+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wadi Degla ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wadi Degla or draw
52%
Wadi Degla or Pyramids FC
73%
Draw or Pyramids FC
75%

Winning margin

Wadi Degla wins by 2+
9%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wadi Degla 1+ goals
61%
Wadi Degla 2+ goals
25%
Wadi Degla 3+ goals
7%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
76%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
42%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)
34%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wadi Degla at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.25 · 68 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wadi Degla attack 0.96 + Pyramids FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Pyramids FC attack 1.61 + Wadi Degla defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wadi Degla scores more
25%
level
27%
Pyramids FC scores more
48%

Pyramids FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wadi Degla 1–1 Pyramids FC

Wadi Degla and Pyramids FC drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 21, 2018.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo)).