Wadi Degla 2–0 National Bank of Egypt

Wadi Degla

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

National Bank of Egypt

F. Boli 89', 19'

4/18/2026

Premier League · Relegation Group - 5Al Salam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wadi Degla34%

×Draw29%

National Bank of Egypt38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wadi DeglaExpected goals in this matchNational Bank of Egypt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.17

Wadi Degla

1.09

National Bank of Egypt

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 97 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

1.20

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Wadi Degla

1.00

National Bank of Egypt

1.14

allows per match

Wadi Degla

1.20

National Bank of Egypt

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wadi Degla+0.00on par

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wadi Degla ↓

National Bank of Egypt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wadi Degla or draw

62%

Wadi Degla or National Bank of Egypt

71%

Draw or National Bank of Egypt

66%

Winning margin

Wadi Degla wins by 2+

13%

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wadi Degla 1+ goals

66%

Wadi Degla 2+ goals

30%

Wadi Degla 3+ goals

10%

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals

69%

National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals

33%

National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)

47%

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wadi Degla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wadi Degla attack 1.00 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.14 + Wadi Degla defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wadi Degla scores more

34%

level

29%

National Bank of Egypt scores more

38%

National Bank of Egypt at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Boli

Wadi Degla · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

F. Boli↳ I. El Bahnasi

25'

S. Bouchama← M. Ibrahim

46'

M. El Zenary← Y. Annor

46'

Oufa← M. Dowidar

53'

Sayed Abdallah

70'

I. Adel← M. Abdelrahim

70'

Y. Oya← M. Abdelaati

73'

Zizo

75'

A. Dahesh← A. Reda

76'

O. Adly← Zizo

76'

M. A. Rahim← A. Meteb

80'

A. El Nadry← M. Ashraf

87'

H. Mohamed← I. El Bahnasi

89'

F. Boli↳ A. Dahesh

90+7'

Ahmed DaheshPenalty confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WadiNational

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots9

1.70Expected Goals (xG)0.25

5Corners2

17Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target1

3Off Target6

4Blocked2

8Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

345Total Passes456

257Accurate Passes355

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.14Goals Prevented-0.14

Discipline

17Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1