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Wadi Degla vs Kahraba Ismailia — Premier League 2018

Wadi Degla
Wadi Degla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kahraba Ismailia
Kahraba Ismailia
A. El Shimi 28'
E. S. Shika M. 67'
K. Yehia 62'
5/4/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Group - 8Al Salam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wadi Degla31%
×Draw29%
Kahraba Ismailia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wadi Degla
1.04
Kahraba Ismailia
1.21

Kahraba Ismailia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 14 away

creates per match

Wadi Degla
1.00
Kahraba Ismailia
1.21

allows per match

Wadi Degla
1.20
Kahraba Ismailia
1.07

finishing

Wadi Degla+0.00on par
Kahraba Ismailia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wadi Degla ↓

Kahraba Ismailia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wadi Degla or draw
60%
Wadi Degla or Kahraba Ismailia
71%
Draw or Kahraba Ismailia
69%

Winning margin

Wadi Degla wins by 2+
12%
Kahraba Ismailia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wadi Degla 1+ goals
65%
Wadi Degla 2+ goals
28%
Wadi Degla 3+ goals
9%
Kahraba Ismailia 1+ goals
70%
Kahraba Ismailia 2+ goals
34%
Kahraba Ismailia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)
44%
Kahraba Ismailia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wadi Degla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

Kahraba Ismailia away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wadi Degla attack 1.00 + Kahraba Ismailia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Kahraba Ismailia attack 1.21 + Wadi Degla defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wadi Degla scores more
31%
level
29%
Kahraba Ismailia scores more
40%

Kahraba Ismailia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kahraba Ismailia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
K. YehiaKahraba IsmailiaKahraba Ismailia · D
8.2

Match Events

28'
A. El Shimi↳ M. Diasty
30'
Mostafa Koshary
46'
I. Abdelnaim← E. El Fayoumi
46'
E. S. Shika M.← M. A. Rahim
54'
Ahmed El Shimi
62'
K. Yehia↳ Mohamed Saied Zika
67'
E. S. Shika M.↳ M. Farouk
71'
Y. Oya← M. Abdelrahim
71'
I. El Bahnasi← A. El Shimi
73'
S. Aka← M. Sillah
75'
Ahmed Reda
76'
H. Mohamed← D. Miskic
76'
Zizo← A. Ayman
76'
O. El Said← A. Sulieman
88'
M. Kaandorp← M. Abdelaati
90+2'
Ali El Gabry
90+5'
M. Medhat← Mohamed Saied Zika

Possession

65%Wadi

Shots

13Wadi

Pass accuracy

54%Wadi

Statistics

WadiKahraba
Overview
65%Possession35%
13Total Shots5
2.07Expected Goals (xG)0.46
5Corners3
15Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots5
4On Target3
6Off Target2
3Blocked0
11Inside Box4
2Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
492Total Passes247
412Accurate Passes175
84%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
0.07Goals Prevented0.07
Discipline
15Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
5Offsides4

Match Recap: Wadi Degla vs Kahraba Ismailia

Kahraba Ismailia beat Wadi Degla 2-1 in Premier League on May 4, 2026.

Goals: A. El Shimi (28'), K. Yehia (62'), E. S. Shika M. (67').

Wadi Degla controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Al Salam Stadium in Cairo.