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Wadi Degla vs Ghazl El Mehalla — Premier League 2018

Wadi Degla
Wadi Degla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ghazl El Mehalla
Ghazl El Mehalla
2/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wadi Degla41%
×Draw29%
Ghazl El Mehalla29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wadi Degla
1.19
Ghazl El Mehalla
0.95

Wadi Degla creates 25% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

creates per match

Wadi Degla
1.00
Ghazl El Mehalla
0.71

allows per match

Wadi Degla
1.20
Ghazl El Mehalla
1.37

finishing

Wadi Degla+0.00on par
Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wadi Degla ↓

Ghazl El Mehalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wadi Degla or draw
71%
Wadi Degla or Ghazl El Mehalla
71%
Draw or Ghazl El Mehalla
59%

Winning margin

Wadi Degla wins by 2+
18%
Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wadi Degla 1+ goals
70%
Wadi Degla 2+ goals
33%
Wadi Degla 3+ goals
12%
Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals
61%
Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals
25%
Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)
59%
Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wadi Degla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

Ghazl El Mehalla away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wadi Degla attack 1.00 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.71 + Wadi Degla defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wadi Degla scores more
41%
level
29%
Ghazl El Mehalla scores more
29%

Wadi Degla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wadi Degla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wadi Degla 0–1 Ghazl El Mehalla

Ghazl El Mehalla beat Wadi Degla 1-0 in Premier League on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.