Wad Nubawi 1–0 Tuti: Result & Stats

Wad Nubawi

FT

1 – 0

Tuti

7/19/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 28Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Wad Nubawi40%

×Draw32%

Tuti28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wad NubawiExpected goals in this matchTuti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.81

Wad Nubawi

1.02

Tuti

0.81

Wad Nubawi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

0.79

creates per match

0.84

0.79

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Wad Nubawi

0.79

Tuti

0.84

allows per match

Wad Nubawi

0.79

Tuti

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Tuti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Nubawi ↓

Tuti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Wad Nubawi or draw

72%

Wad Nubawi or Tuti

68%

Draw or Tuti

60%

Winning margin

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+

15%

Tuti wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals

64%

Wad Nubawi 2+ goals

27%

Wad Nubawi 3+ goals

8%

Tuti 1+ goals

56%

Tuti 2+ goals

19%

Tuti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)

58%

Tuti (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Nubawi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Tuti away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Nubawi attack 0.79 + Tuti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tuti attack 0.84 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wad Nubawi scores more

40%

level

32%

Tuti scores more

28%

Wad Nubawi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wad Nubawi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff