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Wad Nubawi vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
FT
2 – 1
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
3/18/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 12Jebel Aulia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Wad Nubawi41%
×Draw32%
Hilal Obayed28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Nubawi
1.06
Hilal Obayed
0.82

Wad Nubawi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 56 away

creates per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Nubawi ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Wad Nubawi or draw
72%
Wad Nubawi or Hilal Obayed
68%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
59%

Winning margin

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
16%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
65%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
29%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
9%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
56%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
20%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
59%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Nubawi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Nubawi attack 0.79 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wad Nubawi scores more
41%
level
32%
Hilal Obayed scores more
28%

Wad Nubawi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wad Nubawi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wad Nubawi vs Hilal Obayed

Wad Nubawi beat Hilal Obayed 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on March 18, 2022.

The match was played at Jebel Aulia Stadium in Jabal Awliya.