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Wad Nubawi vs Haidob En Nahud — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
11/14/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Wad Nubawi36%
×Draw32%
Haidob En Nahud32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Nubawi
0.96
Haidob En Nahud
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

creates per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Haidob En Nahud
1.00

allows per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Haidob En Nahud
1.13

finishing

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par
Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Nubawi ↓

Haidob En Nahud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Wad Nubawi or draw
68%
Wad Nubawi or Haidob En Nahud
68%
Draw or Haidob En Nahud
64%

Winning margin

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
13%
Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
62%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
25%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
7%
Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
59%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
23%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
52%
Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Nubawi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Nubawi attack 0.79 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.00 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Wad Nubawi scores more
36%
level
32%
Haidob En Nahud scores more
32%

Wad Nubawi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wad Nubawi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Wad Nubawi 1–1 Haidob En Nahud

Wad Nubawi and Haidob En Nahud drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on November 14, 2022.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.