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Wad Nubawi vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
FT
1 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
1/6/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 4Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Wad Nubawi45%
×Draw29%
Al Shorta25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Nubawi
1.23
Al Shorta
0.84

Wad Nubawi creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 83 away

creates per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Al Shorta
0.89

allows per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Al Shorta
1.67

finishing

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Nubawi ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wad Nubawi or draw
75%
Wad Nubawi or Al Shorta
71%
Draw or Al Shorta
55%

Winning margin

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
20%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
71%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
35%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
13%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
57%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
21%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
64%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Nubawi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Nubawi attack 0.79 + Al Shorta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Shorta attack 0.89 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wad Nubawi scores more
45%
level
29%
Al Shorta scores more
25%

Wad Nubawi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wad Nubawi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wad Nubawi vs Al Shorta

Wad Nubawi beat Al Shorta 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 6, 2023.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.