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Wad Nubawi vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
FT
1 – 1
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
4/11/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 28Kober Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Wad Nubawi52%
×Draw29%
Al Rabta Kosti19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Nubawi
1.31
Al Rabta Kosti
0.68

Wad Nubawi creates 93% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 51 away

creates per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Al Rabta Kosti
0.57

allows per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Al Rabta Kosti
1.84

finishing

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Nubawi ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wad Nubawi or draw
81%
Wad Nubawi or Al Rabta Kosti
71%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
48%

Winning margin

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
25%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
73%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
38%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
14%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
49%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
15%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
73%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Nubawi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Nubawi attack 0.79 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.57 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wad Nubawi scores more
52%
level
29%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
19%

Wad Nubawi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wad Nubawi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wad Nubawi vs Al Rabta Kosti

Wad Nubawi and Al Rabta Kosti drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on April 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kober Stadium in Khartoum North.