Wad Hashim Sennar 2–1 Merreikh El-Fasher

Wad Hashim Sennar

FT

2 – 1

Merreikh El-Fasher

2/3/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 10Sennar Stadium (Sennar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wad Hashim Sennar45%

×Draw32%

Merreikh El-Fasher23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wad Hashim SennarExpected goals in this matchMerreikh El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.67

Wad Hashim Sennar

1.08

Merreikh El-Fasher

0.67

Wad Hashim Sennar creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 48 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Wad Hashim Sennar

1.00

Merreikh El-Fasher

0.67

allows per match

Wad Hashim Sennar

0.67

Merreikh El-Fasher

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Hashim Sennar ↓

Merreikh El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Wad Hashim Sennar or draw

77%

Wad Hashim Sennar or Merreikh El-Fasher

68%

Draw or Merreikh El-Fasher

55%

Winning margin

Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+

19%

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals

66%

Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals

29%

Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals

10%

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals

49%

Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals

15%

Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)

67%

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Hashim Sennar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Merreikh El-Fasher away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 1.00 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 0.67 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wad Hashim Sennar scores more

45%

level

32%

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more

23%

Wad Hashim Sennar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wad Hashim Sennar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff