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Wad Hashim Sennar vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Hashim Sennar
Wad Hashim Sennar
FT
2 – 0
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
1/2/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6Sennar Stadium (Sennar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wad Hashim Sennar57%
×Draw27%
Al Rabta Kosti16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Hashim Sennar
1.44
Al Rabta Kosti
0.61

Wad Hashim Sennar creates 136% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 52 away

creates per match

Wad Hashim Sennar
1.00
Al Rabta Kosti
0.56

allows per match

Wad Hashim Sennar
0.67
Al Rabta Kosti
1.87

finishing

Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Hashim Sennar ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wad Hashim Sennar or draw
84%
Wad Hashim Sennar or Al Rabta Kosti
73%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
43%

Winning margin

Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+
29%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals
76%
Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals
42%
Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals
18%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
46%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
13%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)
78%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Hashim Sennar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 1.00 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.44

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.56 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wad Hashim Sennar scores more
57%
level
27%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
16%

Wad Hashim Sennar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wad Hashim Sennar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wad Hashim Sennar vs Al Rabta Kosti

Wad Hashim Sennar beat Al Rabta Kosti 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 2, 2019.

The match was played at Sennar Stadium (Sennar).