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Wacker Nordhausen vs Oberlausitz Neugersdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
FT
0 – 1
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
9/6/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4Kunstrasen AKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen44%
×Draw25%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Nordhausen
1.55
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.28

Wacker Nordhausen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.22
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
0.92

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.65
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.89

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw
69%
Wacker Nordhausen or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
75%
Draw or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
56%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
22%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
79%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
46%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
20%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
72%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
37%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
58%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.55

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 0.92 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more
44%
level
25%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
31%

Wacker Nordhausen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wacker Nordhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wacker Nordhausen vs Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf beat Wacker Nordhausen 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Kunstrasen AKS in Nordhausen.