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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Wacker Nordhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
5/21/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 32ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf51%
×Draw23%
Wacker Nordhausen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.81
Wacker Nordhausen
1.23

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf creates 47% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Wacker Nordhausen
1.03

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Wacker Nordhausen
2.20

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
74%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or Wacker Nordhausen
77%
Draw or Wacker Nordhausen
49%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
28%
Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
84%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
54%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
27%
Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
71%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
35%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
66%
Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
51%
level
23%
Wacker Nordhausen scores more
26%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oberlausitz Neugersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Wacker Nordhausen

Wacker Nordhausen beat Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena in Neugersdorf.