Wacker Nordhausen vs Martinroda

Wacker Nordhausen

CANC

13:00

Martinroda

3/21/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 24Kunstrasen AKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen49%

×Draw23%

Martinroda28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker NordhausenExpected goals in this matchMartinroda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.32

Wacker Nordhausen

1.82

Martinroda

1.32

Wacker Nordhausen creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

1.65

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen

1.22

Martinroda

1.00

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen

1.65

Martinroda

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Martinroda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

Martinroda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw

72%

Wacker Nordhausen or Martinroda

77%

Draw or Martinroda

51%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+

27%

Martinroda wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals

84%

Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals

54%

Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals

27%

Martinroda 1+ goals

73%

Martinroda 2+ goals

38%

Martinroda 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)

64%

Martinroda (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Martinroda away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + Martinroda defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.82

Martinroda attack 1.00 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more

49%

level

23%

Martinroda scores more

28%

Wacker Nordhausen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wacker Nordhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff