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Wacker Nordhausen vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
FT
0 – 3
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
10/18/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 8Albert-Kuntz-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen44%
×Draw25%
Ludwigsfelde31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Nordhausen
1.59
Ludwigsfelde
1.30

Wacker Nordhausen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 50 away

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.22
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.65
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw
69%
Wacker Nordhausen or Ludwigsfelde
75%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
56%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
22%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
80%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
47%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
21%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
73%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
37%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
59%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more
44%
level
25%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
31%

Wacker Nordhausen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wacker Nordhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Wacker Nordhausen 0–3 Ludwigsfelde

Ludwigsfelde beat Wacker Nordhausen 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Albert-Kuntz-Sportpark in Nordhausen.