Wacker Nordhausen 1–4 Budissa Bautzen

Wacker Nordhausen

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Budissa Bautzen

2/6/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 14Kunstrasen AKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen38%

×Draw23%

Budissa Bautzen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker NordhausenExpected goals in this matchBudissa Bautzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.71

Wacker Nordhausen

1.67

Budissa Bautzen

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

1.22

creates per match

1.78

1.65

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen

1.22

Budissa Bautzen

1.78

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen

1.65

Budissa Bautzen

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

Budissa Bautzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw

61%

Wacker Nordhausen or Budissa Bautzen

77%

Draw or Budissa Bautzen

62%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+

19%

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals

81%

Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals

50%

Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals

23%

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals

82%

Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals

51%

Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)

49%

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.67

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more

38%

level

23%

Budissa Bautzen scores more

39%

Budissa Bautzen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff