Wacker Nordhausen 2–2 Auerbach: Result & Stats

Wacker Nordhausen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Auerbach

4/6/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 24Albert-Kuntz-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen28%

×Draw24%

Auerbach48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker NordhausenExpected goals in this matchAuerbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.72

Wacker Nordhausen

1.25

Auerbach

1.72

Auerbach creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 62 away

1.22

creates per match

1.79

1.65

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen

1.22

Auerbach

1.79

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen

1.65

Auerbach

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

Auerbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw

52%

Wacker Nordhausen or Auerbach

76%

Draw or Auerbach

72%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+

12%

Auerbach wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals

71%

Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals

36%

Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals

13%

Auerbach 1+ goals

82%

Auerbach 2+ goals

51%

Auerbach 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)

37%

Auerbach (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Auerbach attack 1.79 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more

28%

level

24%

Auerbach scores more

48%

Auerbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff