Wacker Nordhausen 1–3 An der Fahner Höhe

Wacker Nordhausen

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

An der Fahner Höhe

5/25/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 33Albert-Kuntz-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen40%

×Draw25%

An der Fahner Höhe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker NordhausenExpected goals in this matchAn der Fahner Höhe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.34

Wacker Nordhausen

1.46

An der Fahner Höhe

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

1.22

creates per match

1.03

1.65

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen

1.22

An der Fahner Höhe

1.03

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen

1.65

An der Fahner Höhe

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw

65%

Wacker Nordhausen or An der Fahner Höhe

75%

Draw or An der Fahner Höhe

60%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+

19%

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals

77%

Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals

43%

Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals

18%

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals

74%

An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals

39%

An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)

54%

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more

40%

level

25%

An der Fahner Höhe scores more

35%

Wacker Nordhausen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wacker Nordhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff