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Wacker Innsbruck W vs Vorderland W — Frauenliga 2019

Wacker Innsbruck W
Wacker Innsbruck W
CANC
00:00
Vorderland W
Vorderland W
3/21/2020FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 10Velly Arena Imst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck W31%
×Draw22%
Vorderland W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Innsbruck W
1.61
Vorderland W
2.02

Vorderland W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck W
1.07
Vorderland W
0.92

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck W
3.13
Vorderland W
2.15

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par
Vorderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck W ↓

Vorderland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck W or draw
53%
Wacker Innsbruck W or Vorderland W
78%
Draw or Vorderland W
69%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+
15%
Vorderland W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals
80%
Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals
48%
Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals
22%
Vorderland W 1+ goals
87%
Vorderland W 2+ goals
60%
Vorderland W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)
40%
Vorderland W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 3.13 · 40 matches

Vorderland W away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 1.07 + Vorderland W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vorderland W attack 0.92 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wacker Innsbruck W scores more
31%
level
22%
Vorderland W scores more
47%

Vorderland W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vorderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wacker Innsbruck W face Vorderland W (Frauenliga)

Frauenliga returns with Wacker Innsbruck W hosting Vorderland W. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Wacker Innsbruck W host Vorderland W at Velly Arena Imst.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.