Wacker Innsbruck W 1–3 Südburgenland W

Wacker Innsbruck W

FT

1 – 3

Südburgenland W

10/18/2020

Frauenliga · Round 6Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck W48%

×Draw19%

Südburgenland W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker Innsbruck WExpected goals in this matchSüdburgenland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

2.11

Wacker Innsbruck W

2.56

Südburgenland W

2.11

Wacker Innsbruck W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 35 away

1.07

creates per match

1.09

3.13

allows per match

4.06

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck W

1.07

Südburgenland W

1.09

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck W

3.13

Südburgenland W

4.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par

Südburgenland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck W ↓

Südburgenland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck W or draw

67%

Wacker Innsbruck W or Südburgenland W

81%

Draw or Südburgenland W

52%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+

30%

Südburgenland W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals

92%

Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals

72%

Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals

46%

Südburgenland W 1+ goals

88%

Südburgenland W 2+ goals

62%

Südburgenland W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)

60%

Südburgenland W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 3.13 · 40 matches

Südburgenland W away — creates 1.09, concedes 4.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 1.07 + Südburgenland W defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.56

Südburgenland W attack 1.09 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wacker Innsbruck W scores more

48%

level

19%

Südburgenland W scores more

33%

Wacker Innsbruck W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wacker Innsbruck W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff