Wacker Innsbruck W 0–3 First Vienna W

Wacker Innsbruck W

FT

0 – 3

First Vienna W

10/31/2021

Frauenliga · Round 8Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck W19%

×Draw18%

First Vienna W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker Innsbruck WExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.54

Wacker Innsbruck W

1.36

First Vienna W

2.54

First Vienna W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 49 away

1.07

creates per match

1.94

3.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck W

1.07

First Vienna W

1.94

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck W

3.13

First Vienna W

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par

First Vienna W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck W ↓

First Vienna W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck W or draw

38%

Wacker Innsbruck W or First Vienna W

82%

Draw or First Vienna W

81%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+

8%

First Vienna W wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals

74%

Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals

39%

Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals

16%

First Vienna W 1+ goals

92%

First Vienna W 2+ goals

72%

First Vienna W 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)

24%

First Vienna W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 3.13 · 40 matches

First Vienna W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 1.07 + First Vienna W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

First Vienna W attack 1.94 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wacker Innsbruck W scores more

19%

level

18%

First Vienna W scores more

62%

First Vienna W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "First Vienna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff