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First Vienna W vs Wacker Innsbruck W — Frauenliga 2019

First Vienna W
First Vienna W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wacker Innsbruck W
Wacker Innsbruck W
5/22/2022FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 17Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

First Vienna W78%
×Draw13%
Wacker Innsbruck W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

First Vienna W
3.25
Wacker Innsbruck W
1.11

First Vienna W creates 193% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 41 away

creates per match

First Vienna W
2.29
Wacker Innsbruck W
0.93

allows per match

First Vienna W
1.29
Wacker Innsbruck W
4.20

finishing

First Vienna W+0.00on par
Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna W ↓

Wacker Innsbruck W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

First Vienna W or draw
90%
First Vienna W or Wacker Innsbruck W
87%
Draw or Wacker Innsbruck W
22%

Winning margin

First Vienna W wins by 2+
59%
Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

First Vienna W 1+ goals
96%
First Vienna W 2+ goals
83%
First Vienna W 3+ goals
61%
Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals
67%
Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals
30%
Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

First Vienna W (draw refunded)
89%
Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Wacker Innsbruck W away — creates 0.93, concedes 4.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna W attack 2.29 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.25

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 0.93 + First Vienna W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

First Vienna W scores more
78%
level
13%
Wacker Innsbruck W scores more
10%

First Vienna W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "First Vienna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: First Vienna W vs Wacker Innsbruck W

First Vienna W beat Wacker Innsbruck W 4-0 in Frauenliga on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Naturarena Hohe Warte in Wien.