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Wacker Innsbruck W vs Altach / Vorderland W — Frauenliga 2019

Wacker Innsbruck W
Wacker Innsbruck W
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
Altach / Vorderland W
Altach / Vorderland W
8/27/2023FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 1Tivoli W1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck W13%
×Draw16%
Altach / Vorderland W71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Innsbruck W
1.17
Altach / Vorderland W
2.83

Altach / Vorderland W creates 142% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck W
1.07
Altach / Vorderland W
2.52

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck W
3.13
Altach / Vorderland W
1.26

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par
Altach / Vorderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck W ↓

Altach / Vorderland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck W or draw
29%
Wacker Innsbruck W or Altach / Vorderland W
84%
Draw or Altach / Vorderland W
87%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+
5%
Altach / Vorderland W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals
69%
Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals
33%
Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals
11%
Altach / Vorderland W 1+ goals
94%
Altach / Vorderland W 2+ goals
77%
Altach / Vorderland W 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)
16%
Altach / Vorderland W (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 3.13 · 40 matches

Altach / Vorderland W away — creates 2.52, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 1.07 + Altach / Vorderland W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Altach / Vorderland W attack 2.52 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Wacker Innsbruck W scores more
13%
level
16%
Altach / Vorderland W scores more
71%

Altach / Vorderland W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Altach / Vorderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wacker Innsbruck W vs Altach / Vorderland W

Altach / Vorderland W beat Wacker Innsbruck W 8-0 in Frauenliga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Tivoli W1 in Innsbruck.